Mott Haven Eviction Risk: High , New York

The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. This is renter territory: 99% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. At $1,093 a month, rents run 40% under what the rest of New York commands.

Housing insecurity runs 35.3% against 14.2% nationally. The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $38,235, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 7.9/10.

It sits 0.9 points above the New York County average of 9.0. Court records carry 2,298 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Filings peaked in 2002 at 40.8% of renter households.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Manhattan. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.