Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #9,927 of 84,120 nationally
Vails Gate Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 36071012602 · Orange County, NY · pop 2,881
With a score of 7.6/10, tract 36071012602 in Vails Gate, NY reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,881. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9/10.
Risk score
7.6
Elevated
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units1,447
Renter share48.9%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate8.4%
Median income$54,340
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
42
th percentile
Moderate
National
88
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Vails Gate and the region
Centroid at 41.4589, -74.0532 · click any tract to drill in
Why Vails Gate scores 7.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Vails Gate
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
8.4% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,638 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Vails Gate
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Vails Gate
9.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Vails Gate
6.6
How Vails Gate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 63%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.7%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.3%Food insecurity
- 12.5%SNAP enrollment
- 8.5%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 14.7%Frequent mental distress
- 27.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Vails Gate
Set annual rent against average income of $54,340 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Against Orange County at 49.0%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.6/10.
The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.1/10.
Against the Orange County average of 6.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. On the national scale it lands near the 88th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 6.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,638, close to the Vails Gate average. 49% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 36071012602
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36071012602?
Census tract 36071012602 in Vails Gate scores 7.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 36071012602?
Median gross rent is $1,638/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 36071012602?
8.4% of residents in tract 36071012602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,881.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 36071012602?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 63th, minority 80th, housing 78th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 36071012602 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 36071012602 compare to Vails Gate overall?
Tract 36071012602 scores 7.6/10, higher than the parent city of Vails Gate at 6.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Vails Gate; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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