Within neighborhood
60
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally
Heer Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Lindenhurst
Tract 36103123802 · Suffolk County, NY · pop 3,456 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 6.8/10, tract 36103123802 in the Heer Park area of Copiague, NY reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,456 residents. The severe-burden share is 53%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 84%
Tract context
Occupied units1,188
Renter share16.2%
SVI overall0.19
Poverty rate5.8%
Median income$112,786
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
36
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lindenhurst and the region
Centroid at 40.6649, -73.3770 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heer Park scores 6.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lindenhurst
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
5.8% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,335 rent vs county FMR
4.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lindenhurst
8.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lindenhurst
4.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lindenhurst
6.2
How Heer Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 19
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 44%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 37%Racial/ethnic minority
- 11%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Heer Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.3%Food insecurity
- 7.6%SNAP enrollment
- 5.7%Transit barriers
- 5.8%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 23.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heer Park
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.5/10. Cost burden runs 62% here against 51.3% across Suffolk County.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8/10. Running hot, state political climate reads 7.3/10. SNAP participation runs 7.6% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 10.3% against 17.8% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 16% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Social vulnerability reads 2.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Suffolk County average of 6.3 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 36103123802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36103123802?
Census tract 36103123802 in the Heer Park neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 36103123802?
Median gross rent is $2,335/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 36103123802?
5.8% of residents in tract 36103123802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,456.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 36103123802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 19th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 14th, minority 37th, housing 11th.
Q5
Is tract 36103123802 considered part of Heer Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36103123802 fall within Heer Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 36103123802 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 36103123802 compare to Lindenhurst overall?
Tract 36103123802 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Lindenhurst at 6.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lindenhurst eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lindenhurst
Top eight tracts in Lindenhurst ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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