Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Lake Forest Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 39099812001 · Mahoning County, OH · pop 5,200 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 39099812001 covers part of the Lake Forest area of Mahoning County, OH, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.8/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units2,461
Renter share41.2%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate7.1%
Median income$76,523
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
11
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
National
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mahoning County and the region
Centroid at 41.0062, -80.6656 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lake Forest scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
2.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
7.1% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$678 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
State baseline
2.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Lake Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 39
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 35%Socioeconomic
- 33%Household composition
- 36%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 201Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.62%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.6%Peak (2014)
- 33Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lake Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.7%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.4%Food insecurity
- 8.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.1%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 16.1%Frequent mental distress
- 27.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lake Forest
Against Mahoning County at 42.6%, 33% of renters here are cost-burdened. Against the Mahoning County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.5 points. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10.
The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.4/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 201 filings here across 7 tracked years. Food insecurity runs 10.4% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 8.0% against 15.2% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2014, when 2.6% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 2.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 11% of average household income of $76,523, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39099812001
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099812001?
Census tract 39099812001 in the Lake Forest neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39099812001?
Median gross rent is $678/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39099812001?
7.1% of residents in tract 39099812001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,200.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39099812001?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 33th, minority 36th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 39099812001 considered part of Lake Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099812001 fall within Lake Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39099812001?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 201 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 39099812001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.62% of renter households, peaking at 2.6% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39099812001 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
Was tract 39099812001 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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