Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Lake Forest Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 39099812002 · Mahoning County, OH · pop 3,954 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 39099812002 covers part of the Lake Forest area of Mahoning County, OH, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,954. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 7.7/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units1,790
Renter share31.8%
SVI overall0.19
Poverty rate10.0%
Median income$62,155
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
31
th percentile
Low
Within state
38
th percentile
Low
National
27
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mahoning County and the region
Centroid at 41.0075, -80.6845 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lake Forest scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
2.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
10.0% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$840 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
State baseline
2.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Lake Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 19
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 12%Racial/ethnic minority
- 18%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 92Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.44%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.4%Peak (2010)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lake Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.3%Food insecurity
- 8.2%SNAP enrollment
- 6.0%Transit barriers
- 6.1%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lake Forest
Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.4/10. It sits 1.2 points below the Mahoning County average of 4.5. Running cool, local political climate reads 2.4/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 92 filings here across 7 tracked years. Against Mahoning County at 42.6%, 38% of renters here are cost-burdened. Food insecurity runs 10.3% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 8.2% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2010, when 3.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.4% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 27th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.7/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39099812002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099812002?
Census tract 39099812002 in the Lake Forest neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39099812002?
Median gross rent is $840/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39099812002?
10.0% of residents in tract 39099812002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,954.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39099812002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 19th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 26th, minority 12th, housing 18th.
Q5
Is tract 39099812002 considered part of Lake Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099812002 fall within Lake Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39099812002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 92 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 39099812002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.44% of renter households, peaking at 3.4% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39099812002 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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