Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Marshall Bell Eviction Risk: Lower , Northwest Harborcreek
Tract 42049011508 · Erie County, PA · pop 5,172 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
42049011508 is a census tract in the Marshall Bell area of Northwest Harborcreek, PA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.8/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units2,027
Renter share6.8%
SVI overall0.24
Poverty rate7.1%
Median income$91,719
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
3
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
19
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Northwest Harborcreek and the region
Centroid at 42.1375, -79.9912 · click any tract to drill in
Why Marshall Bell scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
7.1% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$826 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
4.6
How Marshall Bell compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 24
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 14%Racial/ethnic minority
- 18%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 15%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Marshall Bell
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. It sits 1.3 points below the Erie County average of 4.3. Against Erie County at 42.3%, roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.4/10. The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
At $826 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Northwest Harborcreek commands. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 7% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $91,719, annual rent is just 11%. Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.6 points cooler.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049011508
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049011508?
Census tract 42049011508 in the Marshall Bell neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049011508?
Median gross rent is $826/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049011508?
7.1% of residents in tract 42049011508 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,172.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049011508?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 76th, minority 14th, housing 18th.
Q5
Is tract 42049011508 considered part of Marshall Bell?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049011508 fall within Marshall Bell (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 42049011508 compare to Northwest Harborcreek overall?
Tract 42049011508 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Northwest Harborcreek at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Northwest Harborcreek; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 42049011508 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Northwest Harborcreek
Top eight tracts in Northwest Harborcreek ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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