Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Ephrata Commercial Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 42071012404 · Lancaster County, PA · pop 5,377 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 42071012404 covers part of the Ephrata Commercial Historic District area of Lancaster County, PA, and scores 4.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,377. The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,906
Renter share11.9%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate14.0%
Median income$84,821
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
54
th percentile
Moderate
National
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ephrata and the region
Centroid at 40.1748, -76.1574 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ephrata Commercial Historic District scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ephrata
3.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
14.0% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,214 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ephrata
3.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ephrata
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ephrata
5.0
How Ephrata Commercial Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 17%Racial/ethnic minority
- 96%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 193Total filings over 7 yrs
- 5.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.8%Peak (2003)
- 19Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 73% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ephrata Commercial Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ephrata Commercial Historic District
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 7.6/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 193 filings here across 7 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2003, when 11.8% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 5.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 49th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $84,821, annual rent is just 17%. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
38% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Lancaster County average of 4.2 closely.
Average gross rent runs $1,214 a month.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 42071012404
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42071012404?
Census tract 42071012404 in the Ephrata Commercial Historic District neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42071012404?
Median gross rent is $1,214/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42071012404?
14.0% of residents in tract 42071012404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,377.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42071012404?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 72th, minority 17th, housing 96th.
Q5
Is tract 42071012404 considered part of Ephrata Commercial Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42071012404 fall within Ephrata Commercial Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42071012404?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 193 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42071012404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.88% of renter households, peaking at 11.8% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42071012404 compare to Ephrata overall?
Tract 42071012404 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Ephrata at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ephrata eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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