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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally

Chestnut Eviction Risk: Moderate , Austin

Tract 48453000402 · Travis, TX · pop 3,207 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 48453000402 covers the Chestnut neighborhood of Austin in Texas. Home to 3,207 residents, it scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 45% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,711 a month while the average household earns $79,875 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 67% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30% Stable renters 37% Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,837
Renter share66.9%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate15.3%
Median income$79,875

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Chestnut
Moderate
Within parent city
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#65 of 239 tracts In Austin
Elevated
Within county
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#69 of 290 tracts In Travis
High
Within state
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#3,094 of 6,884 tracts In Texas
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Austin and the region

Centroid at 30.2841, -97.7155 · click any tract to drill in

Why Chestnut scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Austin
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.2
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
15.3% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,711 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Austin
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Austin
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Austin
4.5

How Chestnut compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Chestnut risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.14.1This tracttract 000402Austin: 2.92.9Austinparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 62

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 220Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 2.34%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.3%Peak (2001)
  • 25Filings in 2012 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2012
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 484530004022001: 26 filings (3.30/100 renter HHs)2002: 21 filings (2.66/100 renter HHs)2003: 22 filings (2.79/100 renter HHs)2004: 22 filings (2.79/100 renter HHs)2005: 13 filings (1.82/100 renter HHs)2006: 22 filings (3.08/100 renter HHs)2007: 12 filings (1.68/100 renter HHs)2008: 21 filings (2.94/100 renter HHs)2009: 9 filings (1.26/100 renter HHs)2010: 17 filings (2.10/100 renter HHs)2011: 10 filings (1.04/100 renter HHs)2012: 25 filings (2.61/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 12 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Chestnut

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Austin eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Travis County average of 5.2 and above the Texas statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 62nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 58% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 48453000402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48453000402?

Census tract 48453000402 in the Chestnut neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 48453000402?

Median gross rent is $1,711/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 48453000402?

15.3% of residents in tract 48453000402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,207.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 48453000402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 3th, minority 66th, housing 91th.
Q5

Is tract 48453000402 considered part of Chestnut?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 48453000402 fall within Chestnut (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 48453000402?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 220 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 48453000402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.34% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 48453000402 compare to Austin overall?

Tract 48453000402 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Austin at 2.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Austin eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 48453000402 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 58% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Austin

Top eight tracts in Austin ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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