Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Chestnut Eviction Risk: Moderate , Austin
Tract 48453000402 · Travis, TX · pop 3,207 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 48453000402 covers part of the Chestnut area of Austin, TX, and scores 4.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,207. 24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%
Stable renters 37%
Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,837
Renter share66.9%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate15.3%
Median income$79,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
74
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
84
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Austin and the region
Centroid at 30.2841, -97.7155 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chestnut scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Austin
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.2
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
15.3% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,711 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Austin
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Austin
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Austin
4.5
How Chestnut compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 66%Racial/ethnic minority
- 91%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 1%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 58%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 220Total filings over 12 yrs
- 2.34%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.3%Peak (2001)
- 25Filings in 2012 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 12 months.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chestnut
The main counterweight is state political climate at 1.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
This is renter territory: 67% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. It sits 0.9 points above the Travis County average of 4.0.
Court records carry 220 eviction filings across 12 observed years. Filings peaked in 2001 at 3.3% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 2.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 6.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
45% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 48453000402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48453000402?
Census tract 48453000402 in the Chestnut neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 48453000402?
Median gross rent is $1,711/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 48453000402?
15.3% of residents in tract 48453000402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,207.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 48453000402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 3th, minority 66th, housing 91th.
Q5
Is tract 48453000402 considered part of Chestnut?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 48453000402 fall within Chestnut (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 48453000402?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 220 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 48453000402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.34% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 48453000402 compare to Austin overall?
Tract 48453000402 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Austin at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Austin eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 48453000402 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 58% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Austin
Top eight tracts in Austin ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · TX
Grooms Addition
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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Fiskville
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
Garrison Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
West Congress
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
Quail Creek
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
The Drag
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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St. Johns
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
South Lamar
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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