Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally
Quail Oaks Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bellwood
Tract 51041100407 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 4,230 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
For landlords sizing up Quail Oaks in Bellwood, census tract 51041100407 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 7.2/10. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
57% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 34% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,592 a month while the average household earns $61,347 a year, roughly 31% of income at the averages. About 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,610
Renter share43.5%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate16.6%
Median income$61,347
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
82
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bellwood and the region
Centroid at 37.3937, -77.4352 · click any tract to drill in
Why Quail Oaks scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bellwood
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.6% poverty · this tract
4.1
Supply constraint
$1,592 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bellwood
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bellwood
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bellwood
8.3
How Quail Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 54%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 378Total filings over 7 yrs
- 18.90%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.4%Peak (2016)
- 78Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.5%Housing insecurity
- 12.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.1%Food insecurity
- 20.7%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 14.9%No health insurance
- 20.0%Frequent mental distress
- 36.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Quail Oaks
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bellwood, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 18.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 378 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 18.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 16.4% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100407?
Census tract 51041100407 in the Quail Oaks neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100407?
Median gross rent is $1,592/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100407?
16.6% of residents in tract 51041100407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,230.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 64th, minority 76th, housing 54th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100407 considered part of Quail Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100407 fall within Quail Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100407?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 378 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100407 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.90% of renter households, peaking at 16.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100407 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100407 compare to Bellwood overall?
Tract 51041100407 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Bellwood at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bellwood; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bellwood
Top eight tracts in Bellwood ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related