Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #12,481 of 84,120 nationally
Quail Oaks Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bellwood
Tract 51041100407 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 4,230 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 7.1/10, tract 51041100407 in the Quail Oaks area of Bellwood, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,230 residents. It sits 2.9 points above the Chesterfield County average of 4.2.
Risk score
7.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,610
Renter share43.5%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate16.6%
Median income$61,347
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
98
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bellwood and the region
Centroid at 37.3937, -77.4352 · click any tract to drill in
Why Quail Oaks scores 7.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bellwood
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.6% poverty · this tract
4.1
Supply constraint
$1,592 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bellwood
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bellwood
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bellwood
8.3
How Quail Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 54%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 378Total filings over 7 yrs
- 18.90%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.4%Peak (2016)
- 78Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.5%Housing insecurity
- 12.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.1%Food insecurity
- 20.7%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 14.9%No health insurance
- 20.0%Frequent mental distress
- 36.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Quail Oaks
At $1,592 a month, rents run 50% over what the rest of Bellwood commands. The severe-burden share is 34%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.6/10. Cost burden runs 57% here against 42.3% across Chesterfield County.
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.4/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.1/10.
Court records carry 378 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 16.4% of renter households. In a typical year about 18.9% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.1/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.9 points hotter.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100407?
Census tract 51041100407 in the Quail Oaks neighborhood scores 7.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100407?
Median gross rent is $1,592/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100407?
16.6% of residents in tract 51041100407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,230.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 64th, minority 76th, housing 54th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100407 considered part of Quail Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100407 fall within Quail Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100407?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 378 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100407 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.90% of renter households, peaking at 16.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100407 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100407 compare to Bellwood overall?
Tract 51041100407 scores 7.1/10, higher than the parent city of Bellwood at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bellwood; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bellwood
Top eight tracts in Bellwood ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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