Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
College Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Ettrick
Tract 51041100600 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 3,419 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51041100600 in the College Park area of Ettrick, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. 35% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units675
Renter share32.9%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate8.5%
Median income$56,050
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
84
th percentile
High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ettrick and the region
Centroid at 37.2413, -77.4213 · click any tract to drill in
Why College Park scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ettrick
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.5% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,102 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ettrick
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ettrick
6.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ettrick
7.2
How College Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 13%Household composition
- 90%Racial/ethnic minority
- 72%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 478Total filings over 7 yrs
- 43.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 54.6%Peak (2015)
- 65Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.6%Housing insecurity
- 12.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 26.1%Food insecurity
- 21.3%SNAP enrollment
- 17.1%Transit barriers
- 9.3%No health insurance
- 25.4%Frequent mental distress
- 34.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in College Park
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.6/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.6/10.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.4/10. 51% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Chesterfield County average of 42.3%. Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 478 filings here across 7 tracked years. Food insecurity runs 26.1% against 17.8% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 54.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 43.7% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.1/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100600?
Census tract 51041100600 in the College Park neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100600?
Median gross rent is $1,102/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100600?
8.5% of residents in tract 51041100600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,419.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 13th, minority 90th, housing 72th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100600 considered part of College Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100600 fall within College Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 478 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 43.73% of renter households, peaking at 54.6% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100600 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100600 compare to Ettrick overall?
Tract 51041100600 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Ettrick at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ettrick; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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