Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Matoaca Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51041100701 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 5,401 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51041100701 is a census tract in the Matoaca Manor area of Matoaca, VA. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units2,222
Renter share20.7%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate8.3%
Median income$62,222
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Matoaca and the region
Centroid at 37.2344, -77.4752 · click any tract to drill in
Why Matoaca Manor scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Matoaca
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.3% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,222 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Matoaca
3.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Matoaca
5.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Matoaca
4.2
How Matoaca Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 58%Socioeconomic
- 86%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 23%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 931Total filings over 7 yrs
- 22.14%Avg annual filing rate
- 29.4%Peak (2012)
- 102Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 22% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.2%Housing insecurity
- 11.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.0%Food insecurity
- 17.0%SNAP enrollment
- 10.8%Transit barriers
- 8.8%No health insurance
- 19.6%Frequent mental distress
- 32.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Matoaca Manor
Against Chesterfield County at 42.3%, 61% of renters here are cost-burdened. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.6/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.1/10.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. At $1,222 a month, rents run 18% over what the rest of Matoaca commands.
The filing record is not thin: 931 evictions over 7 years of observation. Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.
The worst year on record was 2012, when 29.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 22.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
At 21% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.3/10.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $62,222.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100701
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100701?
Census tract 51041100701 in the Matoaca Manor neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100701?
Median gross rent is $1,222/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100701?
8.3% of residents in tract 51041100701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,401.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100701?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 58th, household 86th, minority 70th, housing 23th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100701 considered part of Matoaca Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100701 fall within Matoaca Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100701?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 931 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.14% of renter households, peaking at 29.4% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100701 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100701 compare to Matoaca overall?
Tract 51041100701 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Matoaca at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Matoaca; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Matoaca
Top eight tracts in Matoaca ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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