Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Fort Belvoir South Post Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51059416200 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,036 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
51059416200 is a census tract in the Fort Belvoir South Post area of Fort Belvoir, VA. It scores 4.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,036 residents. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, roughly two in three of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 66%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units1,274
Renter share99.9%
SVI overall0.22
Poverty rate4.5%
Median income$103,526
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fort Belvoir and the region
Centroid at 38.6905, -77.1511 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fort Belvoir South Post scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fort Belvoir
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.5% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$3,223 rent vs county FMR
8.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fort Belvoir
8.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fort Belvoir
9.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fort Belvoir
5.7
How Fort Belvoir South Post compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 22
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 18%Socioeconomic
- 31%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3Total filings over 2 yrs
- 0.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 0.2%Peak (2016)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.8%Food insecurity
- 7.1%SNAP enrollment
- 6.4%Transit barriers
- 7.3%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 19.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fort Belvoir South Post
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.9/10. The voucher gap is 39.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. This is renter territory: 100% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.9/10. Set annual rent against average income of $103,526 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Severe burden reaches 22%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.1/10. Disability prevalence runs 19.2% against 31.5% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 3 filings here across 2 tracked years.
Food insecurity runs 9.8% against 17.8% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 0.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 0.1% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059416200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059416200?
Census tract 51059416200 in the Fort Belvoir South Post neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059416200?
Median gross rent is $3,223/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059416200?
4.5% of residents in tract 51059416200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,036.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059416200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 31th, minority 64th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51059416200 considered part of Fort Belvoir South Post?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059416200 fall within Fort Belvoir South Post (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059416200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51059416200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.12% of renter households, peaking at 0.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059416200 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059416200 compare to Fort Belvoir overall?
Tract 51059416200 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Fort Belvoir at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fort Belvoir; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fort Belvoir
Top eight tracts in Fort Belvoir ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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