Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally
Gunston Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , Mason Neck
Tract 51059416300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,932 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
For landlords sizing up the Gunston Manor area of Mason Neck, census tract 51059416300 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of $1/10. That is riskier than roughly 37% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 36% of renter households, a high level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $3,501 monthly, set against $189,688 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 6% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units699
Renter share5.6%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate2.2%
Median income$189,688
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
32
th percentile
Low
Within state
9
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mason Neck and the region
Centroid at 38.6433, -77.1568 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gunston Manor scores 1.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mason Neck
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mason Neck
1.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mason Neck
2.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mason Neck
1.9
How Gunston Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 6%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 15Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.19%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.4%Peak (2011)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 40% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.9%SNAP enrollment
- 4.5%Transit barriers
- 5.9%No health insurance
- 12.6%Frequent mental distress
- 25.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gunston Manor
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mason Neck, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 15 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 7.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 10.4% of renter households in 2011.
In CDC survey modeling, about 6.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059416300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059416300?
Census tract 51059416300 in the Gunston Manor neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059416300?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059416300?
2.2% of residents in tract 51059416300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,932.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059416300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 6th, minority 41th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51059416300 considered part of Gunston Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059416300 fall within Gunston Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059416300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059416300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.19% of renter households, peaking at 10.4% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059416300 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059416300 compare to Mason Neck overall?
Tract 51059416300 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Mason Neck at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mason Neck; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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