Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Gunston Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lorton
Tract 51059422102 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,932 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Census tract 51059422102 covers part of the Gunston Heights area of Lorton, VA, and scores 4.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,932 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.2/10.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units2,057
Renter share23.8%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$153,536
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lorton and the region
Centroid at 38.6906, -77.2183 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gunston Heights scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lorton
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$2,104 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lorton
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lorton
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lorton
5.7
How Gunston Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 26%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 464Total filings over 4 yrs
- 14.72%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.2%Peak (2011)
- 127Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.7%Food insecurity
- 9.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 8.8%No health insurance
- 14.0%Frequent mental distress
- 23.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gunston Heights
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 30% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.5/10.
At $2,104 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Lorton commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. The filing record is not thin: 464 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 16.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.7% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 24% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.4/10.
Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $153,536, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059422102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422102?
Census tract 51059422102 in the Gunston Heights neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059422102?
Median gross rent is $2,104/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422102?
4.6% of residents in tract 51059422102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,932.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 61th, minority 84th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 51059422102 considered part of Gunston Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422102 fall within Gunston Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422102?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 464 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.72% of renter households, peaking at 16.2% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059422102 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059422102 compare to Lorton overall?
Tract 51059422102 scores 4.1/10, lower than the parent city of Lorton at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lorton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lorton
Top eight tracts in Lorton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related