Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Cardinal Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Kings Park
Tract 51059430400 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,664 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
51059430400 is a census tract in the Cardinal Forest area of Kings Park, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,664. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units2,246
Renter share9.5%
SVI overall0.21
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$170,151
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
18
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Kings Park and the region
Centroid at 38.8028, -77.2331 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cardinal Forest scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Kings Park
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,702 rent vs county FMR
6.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Kings Park
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Kings Park
2.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Kings Park
5.4
How Cardinal Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 21
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 14%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 20Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.96%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.3%Peak (2011)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.8%Housing insecurity
- 3.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.5%Food insecurity
- 4.4%SNAP enrollment
- 4.5%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 11.7%Frequent mental distress
- 21.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cardinal Forest
Cost burden runs 67% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.6/10. Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.3/10. SNAP participation runs 4.4% against 15.2% nationally.
The voucher gap is 16.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,702, 17% below the Kings Park average.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 20 filings here across 4 tracked years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 2.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.0% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430400?
Census tract 51059430400 in the Cardinal Forest neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430400?
Median gross rent is $2,702/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430400?
1.5% of residents in tract 51059430400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,664.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 21th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 72th, minority 63th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430400 considered part of Cardinal Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430400 fall within Cardinal Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.96% of renter households, peaking at 2.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430400 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430400 compare to Kings Park overall?
Tract 51059430400 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Kings Park at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Kings Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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