Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Vale Eviction Risk: Lower , Difficult Run
Tract 51059481600 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,483 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51059481600 covers part of the Vale area of Difficult Run, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,483 residents. Cost burden runs 100% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 0%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units1,100
Renter share1.9%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate0.7%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
3
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Difficult Run and the region
Centroid at 38.9025, -77.3352 · click any tract to drill in
Why Vale scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Difficult Run
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.7
How Vale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 15%Household composition
- 34%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2Total filings over 2 yrs
- 3.49%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.6%Peak (2012)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.1%Housing insecurity
- 2.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.3%Food insecurity
- 2.5%SNAP enrollment
- 3.1%Transit barriers
- 3.7%No health insurance
- 10.3%Frequent mental distress
- 19.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Vale
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.6/10.
Well under the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 1.7/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2 filings here across 2 tracked years. Adults with no health insurance runs 3.7% against 11.3% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
The worst year on record was 2012, when 2.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.5% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 2% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059481600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059481600?
Census tract 51059481600 in the Vale neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059481600?
0.7% of residents in tract 51059481600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,483.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059481600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 15th, minority 34th, housing 1th.
Q4
Is tract 51059481600 considered part of Vale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059481600 fall within Vale (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059481600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51059481600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.49% of renter households, peaking at 2.6% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059481600 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059481600 compare to Difficult Run overall?
Tract 51059481600 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Difficult Run at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Difficult Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Difficult Run
Top eight tracts in Difficult Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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