Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Penderwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Difficult Run
Tract 51059481701 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,149 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 3/10, tract 51059481701 in the Penderwood area of Difficult Run, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,149 residents. The dominant input is supply constraint at 10/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,862
Renter share3.7%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate0.2%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
3
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Difficult Run and the region
Centroid at 38.8977, -77.3603 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderwood scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Difficult Run
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.7
How Penderwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 42%Household composition
- 44%Racial/ethnic minority
- 0%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.15%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.9%Peak (2016)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 67% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.0%Housing insecurity
- 2.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.2%Food insecurity
- 2.4%SNAP enrollment
- 3.0%Transit barriers
- 3.6%No health insurance
- 10.2%Frequent mental distress
- 18.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderwood
Cost burden runs 25% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.6/10. Food insecurity runs 4.2% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 2.4% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points.
The filing record is not thin: 11 evictions over 4 years of observation. At $3,501 a month, rents run 14% over what the rest of Difficult Run commands.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 5.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.2% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059481701
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059481701?
Census tract 51059481701 in the Penderwood neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059481701?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059481701?
0.2% of residents in tract 51059481701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,149.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059481701?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 42th, minority 44th, housing 0th.
Q5
Is tract 51059481701 considered part of Penderwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059481701 fall within Penderwood (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059481701?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059481701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.15% of renter households, peaking at 5.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059481701 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059481701 compare to Difficult Run overall?
Tract 51059481701 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Difficult Run at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Difficult Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Difficult Run
Top eight tracts in Difficult Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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