Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Penderwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Difficult Run
Tract 51059482604 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,896 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
With a score of 3.1/10, tract 51059482604 in the Penderwood area of Navy, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. 100% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 0%
Owners 99%
Tract context
Occupied units1,270
Renter share0.7%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$232,120
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
5
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Difficult Run and the region
Centroid at 38.8891, -77.3929 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderwood scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Difficult Run
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Difficult Run
1.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Difficult Run
2.7
How Penderwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 2
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 0%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.3%Housing insecurity
- 3.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.8%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.0%Transit barriers
- 4.2%No health insurance
- 10.1%Frequent mental distress
- 18.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderwood
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 100% of renters here are cost-burdened. The main counterweight is tenant-organizing strength at 1.8/10.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.9/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.9/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points. Housing insecurity runs 5.3% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
That is riskier than roughly 22% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 1% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.2/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059482604
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482604?
Census tract 51059482604 in the Penderwood neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482604?
7.8% of residents in tract 51059482604 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,896.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482604?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 45th, minority 77th, housing 0th.
Q4
Is tract 51059482604 considered part of Penderwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482604 fall within Penderwood (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q5
What share of households in tract 51059482604 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51059482604 compare to Difficult Run overall?
Tract 51059482604 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Difficult Run at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Difficult Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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