Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Lorfax Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Crosspointe
Tract 51059492203 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,596 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51059492203 covers part of the Lorfax Heights area of Crosspointe, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,596. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 100% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 0%
Owners 99%
Tract context
Occupied units1,149
Renter share0.6%
SVI overall0.00
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$247,375
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Crosspointe and the region
Centroid at 38.7212, -77.2643 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lorfax Heights scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Crosspointe
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Crosspointe
1.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Crosspointe
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Crosspointe
2.0
How Lorfax Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 0
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 17%Household composition
- 50%Racial/ethnic minority
- 0%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 13Total filings over 4 yrs
- 6.87%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.0%Peak (2013)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 75% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lorfax Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.1%Housing insecurity
- 3.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.5%Food insecurity
- 3.3%SNAP enrollment
- 3.7%Transit barriers
- 4.2%No health insurance
- 11.2%Frequent mental distress
- 20.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lorfax Heights
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.6/10.
Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10. Food insecurity runs 5.5% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 3.3% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points.
Court records carry 13 eviction filings across 4 observed years. The worst year on record was 2013, when 13.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 6.9% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 1% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059492203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059492203?
Census tract 51059492203 in the Lorfax Heights neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059492203?
1.2% of residents in tract 51059492203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,596.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059492203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 0th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 17th, minority 50th, housing 0th.
Q4
Is tract 51059492203 considered part of Lorfax Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059492203 fall within Lorfax Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059492203?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 13 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059492203 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.87% of renter households, peaking at 13.0% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059492203 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059492203 compare to Crosspointe overall?
Tract 51059492203 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Crosspointe at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Crosspointe; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Related