Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally
Virginia Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Sandston
Tract 51087201406 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,865 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi
51087201406 is a census tract in the Virginia Heights area of Sandston, VA. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,865 residents. The severe-burden share is 33%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units1,669
Renter share69.4%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate15.6%
Median income$44,282
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
88
th percentile
High
Within state
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sandston and the region
Centroid at 37.5204, -77.3462 · click any tract to drill in
Why Virginia Heights scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sandston
6.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.6% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$1,198 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sandston
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sandston
8.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sandston
6.2
How Virginia Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 87%Socioeconomic
- 80%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.5%Housing insecurity
- 13.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.5%Food insecurity
- 22.8%SNAP enrollment
- 12.8%Transit barriers
- 11.7%No health insurance
- 19.2%Frequent mental distress
- 38.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Virginia Heights
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.7/10. 63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Henrico County average of 47.8%. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.7/10.
Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $44,282, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 69% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2/10.
Against the Henrico County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. SNAP participation runs 22.8% against 15.2% nationally.
That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.4/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087201406
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087201406?
Census tract 51087201406 in the Virginia Heights neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087201406?
Median gross rent is $1,198/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087201406?
15.6% of residents in tract 51087201406 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,865.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087201406?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 80th, minority 85th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 51087201406 considered part of Virginia Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087201406 fall within Virginia Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087201406 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087201406 compare to Sandston overall?
Tract 51087201406 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Sandston at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sandston; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Sandston
Top eight tracts in Sandston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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