Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Gray Falcon Station Eviction Risk: Lower , Brambleton
Tract 51107611027 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 2,523 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51107611027 covers part of the Gray Falcon Station area of Brambleton, VA, and scores 3.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,523. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units1,022
Renter share48.8%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$145,972
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
39
th percentile
Low
Within state
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brambleton and the region
Centroid at 38.9980, -77.5341 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gray Falcon Station scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brambleton
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,282 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brambleton
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brambleton
4.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brambleton
4.7
How Gray Falcon Station compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 17%Socioeconomic
- 46%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.4%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.7%No health insurance
- 14.5%Frequent mental distress
- 20.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gray Falcon Station
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. SNAP participation runs 5.9% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 9.0% against 17.8% nationally. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10. That is riskier than roughly 40% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 4.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 36% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
It tracks the Loudoun County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $2,282, close to the Brambleton average. Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $145,972.
49% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611027
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611027?
Census tract 51107611027 in the Gray Falcon Station neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611027?
Median gross rent is $2,282/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611027?
4.3% of residents in tract 51107611027 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,523.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611027?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 46th, minority 68th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611027 considered part of Gray Falcon Station?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611027 fall within Gray Falcon Station (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611027 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611027 compare to Brambleton overall?
Tract 51107611027 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Brambleton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brambleton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Brambleton
Top eight tracts in Brambleton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related