Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #71,178 of 84,120 nationally
Goose Creek Bend Eviction Risk: Lower , Goose Creek Village
Tract 51107611028 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,078 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Tract 51107611028, home to 6,078 residents in the Goose Creek Bend area of Goose Creek Village, scores 3.9/10 for landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 10th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
0% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,873 a month against an average household income of $250,001 a year, roughly 14% of income at the averages. About 8% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,733
Renter share7.5%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate1.7%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
39
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Goose Creek Village and the region
Centroid at 39.0203, -77.5540 · click any tract to drill in
Why Goose Creek Bend scores 2.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,873 rent vs county FMR
7.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
2.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
1.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
2.3
How Goose Creek Bend compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.6%Housing insecurity
- 3.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.0%Food insecurity
- 3.3%SNAP enrollment
- 3.8%Transit barriers
- 4.3%No health insurance
- 11.5%Frequent mental distress
- 16.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Goose Creek Bend
What moves this score most is supply constraint at 7.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Goose Creek Village, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 5.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 3rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is among the easier places to operate: faster process, lighter tenant-protection overhead, and shorter typical cases.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611028
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611028?
Census tract 51107611028 in the Goose Creek Bend neighborhood scores 2.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611028?
Median gross rent is $2,873/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611028?
1.7% of residents in tract 51107611028 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,078.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611028?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 21th, minority 70th, housing 7th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611028 considered part of Goose Creek Bend?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611028 fall within Goose Creek Bend (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611028 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611028 compare to Goose Creek Village overall?
Tract 51107611028 scores 2.2/10, lower than the parent city of Goose Creek Village at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goose Creek Village; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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