Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally
River Crest Eviction Risk: Lower , Countryside
Tract 51107611101 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,922 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
For landlords sizing up the River Crest neighborhood of Countryside, census tract 51107611101 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.6/10. It lands near the 59th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 55% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,319 a month against an average household income of $123,472 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 40% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units1,737
Renter share40.4%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$123,472
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
22
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Countryside and the region
Centroid at 39.0639, -77.4324 · click any tract to drill in
Why River Crest scores 1.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Countryside
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$2,319 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Countryside
4.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Countryside
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Countryside
3.7
How River Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 33%Socioeconomic
- 62%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 53%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 75Total filings over 1 yrs
- 10.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.5%Peak (2016)
- 75Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.2%Housing insecurity
- 6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.3%Food insecurity
- 7.9%SNAP enrollment
- 6.6%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 15.3%Frequent mental distress
- 26.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in River Crest
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Countryside, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 75 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 10.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 10.5% of renter households in 2016.
In CDC survey modeling, about 10.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611101
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611101?
Census tract 51107611101 in the River Crest neighborhood scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611101?
Median gross rent is $2,319/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611101?
7.4% of residents in tract 51107611101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,922.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611101?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 62th, minority 61th, housing 53th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611101 considered part of River Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611101 fall within River Crest (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611101?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 75 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611101 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.53% of renter households, peaking at 10.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611101 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611101 compare to Countryside overall?
Tract 51107611101 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Countryside at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Countryside; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Countryside
Top eight tracts in Countryside ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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