Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,017 of 84,120 nationally
Farmview Eviction Risk: Moderate , Merrimac
Tract 51121020202 · Montgomery County, VA · pop 2,871 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Here is how census tract 51121020202, in the Farmview neighborhood of Merrimac, looks to a landlord: a 5.6/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 2,871. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 41% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,101 a month while the average household earns $50,050 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 73% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%
Stable renters 43%
Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units1,541
Renter share73.1%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate15.8%
Median income$50,050
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
87
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Merrimac and the region
Centroid at 37.1949, -80.4220 · click any tract to drill in
Why Farmview scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Merrimac
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.8% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$1,101 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Merrimac
4.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Merrimac
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Merrimac
5.0
How Farmview compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 63%Household composition
- 30%Racial/ethnic minority
- 100%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.6%Housing insecurity
- 4.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.8%Food insecurity
- 7.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.2%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 14.9%Frequent mental distress
- 32.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Farmview
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Merrimac, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Montgomery County average of 6.0 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51121020202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51121020202?
Census tract 51121020202 in the Farmview neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51121020202?
Median gross rent is $1,101/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51121020202?
15.8% of residents in tract 51121020202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,871.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51121020202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 63th, minority 30th, housing 100th.
Q5
Is tract 51121020202 considered part of Farmview?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51121020202 fall within Farmview (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51121020202 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51121020202 compare to Merrimac overall?
Tract 51121020202 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Merrimac at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Merrimac; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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