Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Port-O-Dumfries Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51153900901 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,033 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51153900901 is a census tract in the Port-O-Dumfries area of Dumfries, VA. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,033 residents. The severe-burden share is 29%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units2,078
Renter share47.5%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate9.5%
Median income$76,196
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
83
th percentile
High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dumfries and the region
Centroid at 38.5618, -77.3197 · click any tract to drill in
Why Port-O-Dumfries scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dumfries
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.5% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,652 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumfries
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumfries
5.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumfries
6.1
How Port-O-Dumfries compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 84
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 81%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 275Total filings over 1 yrs
- 21.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 21.9%Peak (2016)
- 275Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 23.1%Housing insecurity
- 15.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.6%Food insecurity
- 25.0%SNAP enrollment
- 14.5%Transit barriers
- 18.3%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 36.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Port-O-Dumfries
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.1/10.
It sits 1.3 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.4/10.
SNAP participation runs 25.0% against 15.2% nationally. Court records carry 275 eviction filings across 1 observed years.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2016 at 21.9% of renter households.
In a typical year about 21.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900901
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900901?
Census tract 51153900901 in the Port-O-Dumfries neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900901?
Median gross rent is $1,652/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900901?
9.5% of residents in tract 51153900901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,033.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900901?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 67th, minority 82th, housing 81th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900901 considered part of Port-O-Dumfries?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900901 fall within Port-O-Dumfries (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900901?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 275 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900901 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.88% of renter households, peaking at 21.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900901 struggle to pay rent?
About 23.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900901 compare to Dumfries overall?
Tract 51153900901 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Dumfries at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumfries; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dumfries
Top eight tracts in Dumfries ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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