Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Potomac Crest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Quantico Base
Tract 51153901102 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,378 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
With a score of 4.9/10, tract 51153901102 in the Potomac Crest area of Quantico Base, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.9/10.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 57%
Stable renters 42%
Owners 1%
Tract context
Occupied units808
Renter share99.0%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$71,300
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Quantico Base and the region
Centroid at 38.5267, -77.3314 · click any tract to drill in
Why Potomac Crest scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Quantico Base
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,359 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Quantico Base
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Quantico Base
9.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Quantico Base
6.5
How Potomac Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 48%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.2%Housing insecurity
- 7.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.4%Food insecurity
- 10.5%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 11.2%No health insurance
- 21.6%Frequent mental distress
- 26.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Potomac Crest
This is renter territory: 99% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Cost burden runs 58% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. Set annual rent against average income of $71,300 and the ratio lands at 40%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Severe burden reaches 22%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points. On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 5.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Average gross rent is $2,359, close to the Quantico Base average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901102?
Census tract 51153901102 in the Potomac Crest neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901102?
Median gross rent is $2,359/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901102?
2.8% of residents in tract 51153901102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,378.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 19th, minority 48th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901102 considered part of Potomac Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901102 fall within Potomac Crest (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901102 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901102 compare to Quantico Base overall?
Tract 51153901102 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Quantico Base at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Quantico Base; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Quantico Base
Top eight tracts in Quantico Base ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related