Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #53,267 of 84,120 nationally
Potomac Crest Eviction Risk: Lower , Quantico Base
Tract 51153901102 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,378 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51153901102 sits in Potomac Crest in Quantico Base, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.5/10. It lands near the 86th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 58% of renter households, a severe level, and 22% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,359 a month against an average household income of $71,300 a year, roughly 40% of income at the averages. About 99% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 57%
Stable renters 42%
Owners 1%
Tract context
Occupied units808
Renter share99.0%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$71,300
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
60
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Quantico Base and the region
Centroid at 38.5267, -77.3314 · click any tract to drill in
Why Potomac Crest scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Quantico Base
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,359 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Quantico Base
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Quantico Base
9.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Quantico Base
6.5
How Potomac Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 48%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.2%Housing insecurity
- 7.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.4%Food insecurity
- 10.5%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 11.2%No health insurance
- 21.6%Frequent mental distress
- 26.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Potomac Crest
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Quantico Base, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 13.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 46th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901102?
Census tract 51153901102 in the Potomac Crest neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901102?
Median gross rent is $2,359/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901102?
2.8% of residents in tract 51153901102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,378.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 19th, minority 48th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901102 considered part of Potomac Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901102 fall within Potomac Crest (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901102 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901102 compare to Quantico Base overall?
Tract 51153901102 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Quantico Base at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Quantico Base; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Quantico Base
Top eight tracts in Quantico Base ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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