Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Dartmoor Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Haymarket
Tract 51153901506 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,010 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51153901506 sits in the Dartmoor Park area of Haymarket, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. Population here is 7,010. 59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,840
Renter share21.8%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate3.5%
Median income$153,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Haymarket and the region
Centroid at 38.8151, -77.6231 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dartmoor Park scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Haymarket
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,098 rent vs county FMR
8.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Haymarket
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Haymarket
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Haymarket
4.8
How Dartmoor Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 17%Socioeconomic
- 51%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.18%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.2%Peak (2016)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.9%Food insecurity
- 8.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 8.4%No health insurance
- 15.9%Frequent mental distress
- 24.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dartmoor Park
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Average gross rent is $3,098, 37% above the Haymarket average.
The voucher gap is 33.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Running hot, supply constraint reads 8.4/10.
It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 3 filings here across 1 tracked years. The severe-burden share is 8%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
SNAP participation runs 8.0% against 15.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 1.2% of renter households.
In a typical year about 1.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901506
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901506?
Census tract 51153901506 in the Dartmoor Park neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901506?
Median gross rent is $3,098/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901506?
3.5% of residents in tract 51153901506 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,010.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901506?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 51th, minority 74th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901506 considered part of Dartmoor Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901506 fall within Dartmoor Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901506?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901506 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.18% of renter households, peaking at 1.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901506 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901506 compare to Haymarket overall?
Tract 51153901506 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Haymarket at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Haymarket; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Haymarket
Top eight tracts in Haymarket ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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