Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #76,223 of 84,120 nationally
Little Falls Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51179010502 · Stafford County, VA · pop 4,389 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 4.2/10, tract 51179010502 in the Little Falls area of Stafford ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 4,389 residents. On the national scale it ranks #71,616 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
7% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,769 monthly, set against $111,750 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 10% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.8
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,514
Renter share9.9%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$111,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
29
th percentile
Low
National
9
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford County and the region
Centroid at 38.2809, -77.4126 · click any tract to drill in
Why Little Falls scores 1.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,769 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Little Falls compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 26%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 36%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 27Total filings over 2 yrs
- 8.83%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.2%Peak (2016)
- 14Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.5%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.3%Food insecurity
- 6.1%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 6.6%No health insurance
- 15.1%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Little Falls
What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are set by Virginia eviction laws law, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Stafford County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 17th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010502?
Census tract 51179010502 in the Little Falls neighborhood scores 1.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010502?
Median gross rent is $1,769/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 7% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010502?
4.3% of residents in tract 51179010502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,389.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 25th, minority 36th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010502 considered part of Little Falls?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010502 fall within Little Falls (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 27 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.83% of renter households, peaking at 9.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010502 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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