Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Big Bethel Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bethel Manor
Tract 51199050207 · York County, VA · pop 4,422 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51199050207 covers part of the Big Bethel area of Bethel Manor, VA, and scores 4.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,422. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.9/10.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 47%
Stable renters 51%
Owners 2%
Tract context
Occupied units1,285
Renter share97.8%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate6.6%
Median income$74,918
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
86
th percentile
High
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bethel Manor and the region
Centroid at 37.0974, -76.4246 · click any tract to drill in
Why Big Bethel scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bethel Manor
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.6% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,879 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bethel Manor
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bethel Manor
9.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bethel Manor
5.1
How Big Bethel compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 16%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 15%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Big Bethel. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.0%Housing insecurity
- 10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.0%Food insecurity
- 13.5%SNAP enrollment
- 9.9%Transit barriers
- 10.1%No health insurance
- 21.3%Frequent mental distress
- 25.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Big Bethel
98% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.5/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.6/10.
The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Cost burden runs roughly one in two here against 42.6% across York County. Against the York County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points.
At $1,879 a month, rents run 11% under what the rest of Bethel Manor commands. Nationally it ranks #37,882 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 2.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $74,918.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51199050207
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51199050207?
Census tract 51199050207 in the Big Bethel neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51199050207?
Median gross rent is $1,879/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51199050207?
6.6% of residents in tract 51199050207 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,422.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51199050207?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 16th, household 22th, minority 71th, housing 15th.
Q5
Is tract 51199050207 considered part of Big Bethel?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51199050207 fall within Big Bethel (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51199050207 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51199050207 compare to Bethel Manor overall?
Tract 51199050207 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Bethel Manor at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethel Manor; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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