Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Ivy Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newport News
Tract 51700030100 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,910 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51700030100 in the Ivy Park area of Newport News, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,910. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.8/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 55%
Stable renters 45%
Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units1,658
Renter share100.0%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate34.0%
Median income$31,786
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
94
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 36.9605, -76.4113 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ivy Park scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
34.0% poverty · this tract
8.5
Supply constraint
$989 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Ivy Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 94%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 13%Grade C
- 29%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,678Total filings over 5 yrs
- 40.07%Avg annual filing rate
- 42.5%Peak (2014)
- 504Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 27.4%Housing insecurity
- 20.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 36.3%Food insecurity
- 35.9%SNAP enrollment
- 19.7%Transit barriers
- 15.1%No health insurance
- 23.3%Frequent mental distress
- 40.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ivy Park
100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10.
Food insecurity runs 36.3% against 17.8% nationally. Set annual rent against average income of $31,786 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. 24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
The poverty rate is 34%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
Average gross rent is $989, 26% below the Newport News average. Against the Newport News City average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 20.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Against Newport News City at 49.3%, 55% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700030100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700030100?
Census tract 51700030100 in the Ivy Park neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700030100?
Median gross rent is $989/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700030100?
34.0% of residents in tract 51700030100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,910.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700030100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 45th, minority 86th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 51700030100 considered part of Ivy Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700030100 fall within Ivy Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700030100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,678 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700030100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 40.07% of renter households, peaking at 42.5% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700030100 struggle to pay rent?
About 27.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700030100 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700030100 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Newport News at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51700030100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 29% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
North End
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Beechmont
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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