Ivy Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. Pulling the other way is supply constraint, at 1/10.

Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. The poverty rate is 34%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. SNAP participation is 35.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Severe burden reaches 24%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. Food insecurity affects 36.3% of adults, 18.5 points above the national rate.

At $989 a month, rents sit 26% under what the rest of Newport News commands. On the high side is economic stress at 8.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 2,678 evictions logged in this tract.

Filing activity peaked in 2014 at 42.5% of renter households.

One tract means one number: 5.4/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.