Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #49,882 of 84,120 nationally
Carriage Hill Eviction Risk: Lower , Newport News
Tract 51700032007 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,530 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Carriage Hill in Newport News anchors census tract 51700032007, which lands at 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 63rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 57% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 5% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,605 monthly, set against $77,270 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 25% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,420
Renter share24.9%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate4.7%
Median income$77,270
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 37.1190, -76.5381 · click any tract to drill in
Why Carriage Hill scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.7% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,605 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Carriage Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 53
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 42%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 35%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 258Total filings over 5 yrs
- 15.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 17.1%Peak (2012)
- 49Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.0%Food insecurity
- 10.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.4%Transit barriers
- 8.6%No health insurance
- 16.1%Frequent mental distress
- 29.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Carriage Hill
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 4.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Newport News eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Newport News City County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 258 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 15.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 17.1% of renter households in 2012.
In CDC survey modeling, about 11.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700032007
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700032007?
Census tract 51700032007 in the Carriage Hill neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700032007?
Median gross rent is $1,605/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700032007?
4.7% of residents in tract 51700032007 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,530.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700032007?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 77th, minority 72th, housing 35th.
Q5
Is tract 51700032007 considered part of Carriage Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700032007 fall within Carriage Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700032007?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 258 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700032007 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.88% of renter households, peaking at 17.1% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700032007 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700032007 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700032007 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Newport News at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North End
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
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