Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Bernard Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newport News
Tract 51700032133 · Newport News city, VA · pop 1,784 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
With a score of 4.4/10, tract 51700032133 in the Bernard Village area of Newport News, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,784. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 52%
Owners 4%
Tract context
Occupied units770
Renter share96.5%
SVI overall0.35
Poverty rate15.9%
Median income$55,385
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
63
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 37.0874, -76.4871 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bernard Village scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.9% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,620 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Bernard Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 35
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 43%Socioeconomic
- 9%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bernard Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.9%Housing insecurity
- 16.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 27.6%Food insecurity
- 28.4%SNAP enrollment
- 15.9%Transit barriers
- 11.7%No health insurance
- 22.5%Frequent mental distress
- 36.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bernard Village
96% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Severe burden reaches 25%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $55,385, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Average gross rent is $1,620, 21% above the Newport News average. Food insecurity runs 27.6% against 17.8% nationally.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 16.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 49% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 4.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
46% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Newport News City average of 4.1 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700032133
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700032133?
Census tract 51700032133 in the Bernard Village neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700032133?
Median gross rent is $1,620/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700032133?
15.9% of residents in tract 51700032133 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,784.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700032133?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 9th, minority 74th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 51700032133 considered part of Bernard Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700032133 fall within Bernard Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51700032133 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51700032133 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700032133 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Newport News at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
North End
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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