Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally
Carlyle Aparments Eviction Risk: Elevated , McChord AFB
Tract 53053072901 · Pierce County, WA · pop 2,899 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 53053072901 covers part of the Carlyle Aparments area of McChord AFB, WA, and scores 6.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,899 residents. The severe-burden share is 42%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 62%
Stable renters 38%
Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units787
Renter share100.0%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate8.8%
Median income$55,662
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across McChord AFB and the region
Centroid at 47.1296, -122.4909 · click any tract to drill in
Why Carlyle Aparments scores 6.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from McChord AFB
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Washington legislature & governorship
6.0
Economic stress
8.8% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$2,315 rent vs county FMR
6.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from McChord AFB
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from McChord AFB
9.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from McChord AFB
7.1
How Carlyle Aparments compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 39%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 5Total filings 2020-21
- 0.1Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.75×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked St Louis, MO as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Carlyle Aparments
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.9/10. Set annual rent against average income of $55,662 and the ratio lands at 50%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
This is renter territory: 100% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Cost burden runs 62% here against 47.5% across Pierce County.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.6/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.2/10.
It sits 1.1 points above the Pierce County average of 5.7. The voucher gap is 12.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
On the national scale it lands near the 84th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.1/10. Statewide the WA average is 5.9, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $2,315, close to the McChord AFB average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 53053072901
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 53053072901?
Census tract 53053072901 in the Carlyle Aparments neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 53053072901?
Median gross rent is $2,315/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 53053072901?
8.8% of residents in tract 53053072901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,899.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 53053072901?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 19th, minority 63th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 53053072901 considered part of Carlyle Aparments?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 53053072901 fall within Carlyle Aparments (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 53053072901 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.75× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (St Louis, MO), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 53053072901 compare to McChord AFB overall?
Tract 53053072901 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of McChord AFB at 5.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from McChord AFB; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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