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Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally

Windsor Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Midlothian

Tract 51041100915 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 4,124 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

51041100915 is a census tract in the Windsor Forest area of Midlothian, VA. It scores 4.2/10 for landlords. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.

Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 19% Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,851
Renter share38.4%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate1.6%
Median income$75,198

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Windsor Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Midlothian
Elevated
Within county
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#34 of 75 tracts In Chesterfield County
Elevated
Within state
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#919 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Midlothian and the region

Centroid at 37.5120, -77.6349 · click any tract to drill in

Why Windsor Forest scores 4.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Midlothian
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,759 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Midlothian
7.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Midlothian
5.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Midlothian
4.9

How Windsor Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Windsor Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.2This tracttract 1009154.0Midlothianparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 43

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 353Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 9.80%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.7%Peak (2016)
  • 70Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 51041100915
Filings climbed 106% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Windsor Forest

The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.

50% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Chesterfield County average of 42.3%. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.4/10.

Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 353 filings here across 7 tracked years.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 12.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 9.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Chesterfield County average of 4.2 closely.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100915

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100915?

Census tract 51041100915 in the Windsor Forest neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51041100915?

Median gross rent is $1,759/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100915?

1.6% of residents in tract 51041100915 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,124.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100915?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 86th, minority 46th, housing 25th.
Q5

Is tract 51041100915 considered part of Windsor Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100915 fall within Windsor Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100915?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 353 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100915 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.80% of renter households, peaking at 12.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51041100915 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51041100915 compare to Midlothian overall?

Tract 51041100915 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Midlothian at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Midlothian; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Midlothian

Top eight tracts in Midlothian ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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