Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #71,178 of 84,120 nationally
Windsor Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Midlothian
Tract 51041100915 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 4,124 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 51041100915 belongs to the Windsor Forest area of Midlothian, Virginia. It is home to 4,124 residents and scores 6.2/10, an elevated reading for landlords. That is riskier than about 79% of US census tracts.
50% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,759 a month against an average household income of $75,198 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 38% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,851
Renter share38.4%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate1.6%
Median income$75,198
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
39
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Midlothian and the region
Centroid at 37.5120, -77.6349 · click any tract to drill in
Why Windsor Forest scores 2.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Midlothian
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,759 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Midlothian
7.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Midlothian
5.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Midlothian
4.9
How Windsor Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 86%Household composition
- 46%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 353Total filings over 7 yrs
- 9.80%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.7%Peak (2016)
- 70Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 106% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 6.4%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Windsor Forest
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 7.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Midlothian, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 353 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 9.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 12.7% of renter households in 2016.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100915
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100915?
Census tract 51041100915 in the Windsor Forest neighborhood scores 2.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100915?
Median gross rent is $1,759/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100915?
1.6% of residents in tract 51041100915 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,124.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100915?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 86th, minority 46th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100915 considered part of Windsor Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100915 fall within Windsor Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100915?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 353 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100915 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.80% of renter households, peaking at 12.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100915 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100915 compare to Midlothian overall?
Tract 51041100915 scores 2.2/10, lower than the parent city of Midlothian at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Midlothian; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Midlothian
Top eight tracts in Midlothian ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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