Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Timberlake Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Great Falls
Tract 51059480100 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,157 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 51059480100 sits in the Timberlake Run area of Great Falls, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. It is home to 4,157 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 99%
Tract context
Occupied units1,354
Renter share1.0%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate2.3%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
2
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Great Falls and the region
Centroid at 39.0057, -77.2702 · click any tract to drill in
Why Timberlake Run scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Great Falls
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Great Falls
2.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Great Falls
2.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Great Falls
2.1
How Timberlake Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 9%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 22Total filings over 4 yrs
- 11.92%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.0%Peak (2016)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 200% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.0%Housing insecurity
- 2.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.2%Food insecurity
- 2.5%SNAP enrollment
- 3.1%Transit barriers
- 3.6%No health insurance
- 10.4%Frequent mental distress
- 20.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Timberlake Run
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.1/10. SNAP participation runs 2.5% against 15.2% nationally. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.1/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points. Housing insecurity runs 4.0% against 14.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 22 evictions over 4 years of observation.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 20.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 11.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 1% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.8/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480100?
Census tract 51059480100 in the Timberlake Run neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480100?
2.3% of residents in tract 51059480100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,157.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 56th, minority 42th, housing 4th.
Q4
Is tract 51059480100 considered part of Timberlake Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480100 fall within Timberlake Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 22 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.92% of renter households, peaking at 20.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059480100 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059480100 compare to Great Falls overall?
Tract 51059480100 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Great Falls at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Great Falls; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Great Falls
Top eight tracts in Great Falls ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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