Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #81,634 of 84,120 nationally
Gunston Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Lorton
Tract 51059422102 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,932 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Gunston Heights in Lorton anchors census tract 51059422102, which lands at 5.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 48% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 30% of renter households, a moderate level, and 3% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,104 a month while the average household earns $153,536 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 24% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units2,057
Renter share23.8%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$153,536
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lorton and the region
Centroid at 38.6906, -77.2183 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gunston Heights scores 1.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lorton
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$2,104 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lorton
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lorton
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lorton
5.7
How Gunston Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 26%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 464Total filings over 4 yrs
- 14.72%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.2%Peak (2011)
- 127Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.7%Food insecurity
- 9.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 8.8%No health insurance
- 14.0%Frequent mental distress
- 23.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gunston Heights
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lorton, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 464 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 14.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 16.2% of renter households in 2011.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059422102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422102?
Census tract 51059422102 in the Gunston Heights neighborhood scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059422102?
Median gross rent is $2,104/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422102?
4.6% of residents in tract 51059422102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,932.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 61th, minority 84th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 51059422102 considered part of Gunston Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422102 fall within Gunston Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422102?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 464 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.72% of renter households, peaking at 16.2% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059422102 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059422102 compare to Lorton overall?
Tract 51059422102 scores 1.2/10, lower than the parent city of Lorton at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lorton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lorton
Top eight tracts in Lorton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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