Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Gunston Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , Mason Neck
Tract 51059416300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,932 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 51059416300 covers part of the Gunston Manor area of Mason Neck, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,932. The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units699
Renter share5.6%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate2.2%
Median income$189,688
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
1
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mason Neck and the region
Centroid at 38.6433, -77.1568 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gunston Manor scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mason Neck
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mason Neck
1.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mason Neck
2.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mason Neck
1.9
How Gunston Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 6%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 15Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.19%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.4%Peak (2011)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 40% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.9%SNAP enrollment
- 4.5%Transit barriers
- 5.9%No health insurance
- 12.6%Frequent mental distress
- 25.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gunston Manor
The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $3,501, 41% above the Mason Neck average.
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.6/10.
It sits 1.3 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Food insecurity runs 7.1% against 17.8% nationally.
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 36% of renters here are cost-burdened. The filing record is not thin: 15 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The worst year on record was 2011, when 10.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.2% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059416300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059416300?
Census tract 51059416300 in the Gunston Manor neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059416300?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059416300?
2.2% of residents in tract 51059416300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,932.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059416300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 6th, minority 41th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51059416300 considered part of Gunston Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059416300 fall within Gunston Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059416300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059416300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.19% of renter households, peaking at 10.4% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059416300 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059416300 compare to Mason Neck overall?
Tract 51059416300 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Mason Neck at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mason Neck; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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