Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Parklawn Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lincolnia
Tract 51059451800 ·
Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,590 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 4.1/10, tract 51059451800 in the Parklawn area of Lincolnia, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,590 residents. 72% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%Stable renters 3%Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,247
Renter share11.9%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate3.9%
Median income$148,615
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Parklawn
Moderate
Within parent city
0th percentile
#4 of 4 tracts In Lincolnia
Very Low
Within county
59th percentile
#114 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Elevated
Within state
55th percentile
#977 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lincolnia and the region
Centroid at 38.8326, -77.1439 · click any tract to drill in
Why Parklawn scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lincolnia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,500 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lincolnia
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lincolnia
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lincolnia
5.4
How Parklawn compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
49%Socioeconomic
23%Household composition
73%Racial/ethnic minority
13%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
27Total filings over 4 yrs
5.84%Avg annual filing rate
7.7%Peak (2016)
11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2011 to 2016
Filings climbed 175% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
9.4%Housing insecurity
5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
11.3%Food insecurity
7.1%SNAP enrollment
6.1%Transit barriers
10.1%No health insurance
12.3%Frequent mental distress
25.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Parklawn
The dominant input is supply constraint at 10/10. Average gross rent is $3,500, 63% above the Lincolnia average.
The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 27 filings here across 4 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 7.1% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 7.7% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 5.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 44th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 3.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451800
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451800?
Census tract 51059451800 in the Parklawn neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451800?
Median gross rent is $3,500/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451800?
3.9% of residents in tract 51059451800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,590.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451800?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 23th, minority 73th, housing 13th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451800 considered part of Parklawn?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451800 fall within Parklawn (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451800?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 27 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059451800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.84% of renter households, peaking at 7.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451800 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451800 compare to Lincolnia overall?
Tract 51059451800 scores 4.1/10, lower than the parent city of Lincolnia at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lincolnia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lincolnia
Top eight tracts in Lincolnia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.