Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Bren Mar Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lincolnia
Tract 51059452600 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,831 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 4.7/10, tract 51059452600 in the Bren Mar Park area of Lincolnia, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,831. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units2,473
Renter share50.1%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate9.7%
Median income$165,156
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lincolnia and the region
Centroid at 38.8010, -77.1522 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bren Mar Park scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lincolnia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.7% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$2,151 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lincolnia
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lincolnia
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lincolnia
5.4
How Bren Mar Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 29
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 31%Socioeconomic
- 18%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 397Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.43%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.1%Peak (2013)
- 105Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 35% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.4%Housing insecurity
- 6.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.3%Food insecurity
- 8.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 8.0%No health insurance
- 13.1%Frequent mental distress
- 22.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bren Mar Park
Cost burden runs 30% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The severe-burden share is 20%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 397 filings here across 4 tracked years.
SNAP participation runs 8.0% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2013, when 11.1% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.4% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #37,882 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $165,156, annual rent is just 16%. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452600?
Census tract 51059452600 in the Bren Mar Park neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452600?
Median gross rent is $2,151/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452600?
9.7% of residents in tract 51059452600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,831.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 31th, household 18th, minority 79th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452600 considered part of Bren Mar Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452600 fall within Bren Mar Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 397 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.43% of renter households, peaking at 11.1% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452600 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452600 compare to Lincolnia overall?
Tract 51059452600 scores 4.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Lincolnia at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lincolnia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lincolnia
Top eight tracts in Lincolnia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related