Neighborhood · Ranked #37,394 of 84,120 nationally

Mayfair Place Eviction Risk: Moderate , East Highland Park

Tract 51087201001 · Henrico County, VA · pop 6,587 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 51087201001 runs through the Mayfair Place neighborhood of East Highland Park. With 6,587 residents, it scores 6.5/10 for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,229 a month against an average household income of $85,081 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 31% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 16% Owners 69%

Tract context

Occupied units2,621

Renter share31.3%

SVI overall0.43

Poverty rate1.7%

Median income$85,081

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across East Highland Park and the region

Centroid at 37.5772, -77.3771 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mayfair Place scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from East Highland Park

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

1.7% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,229 rent vs county FMR

2.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from East Highland Park

8.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from East Highland Park

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from East Highland Park

7.4

How Mayfair Place compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 43

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

18%Socioeconomic
60%Household composition
90%Racial/ethnic minority
49%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

663Total filings over 2 yrs
45.56%Avg annual filing rate
43.6%Peak (2016)
352Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.3%Housing insecurity
10.5%Utility-shutoff threat
16.9%Food insecurity
14.0%SNAP enrollment
9.3%Transit barriers
7.6%No health insurance
16.3%Frequent mental distress
30.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mayfair Place

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from East Highland Park, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 43rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 663 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 45.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 43.6% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087201001

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087201001?

Census tract 51087201001 in the Mayfair Place neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087201001?

Median gross rent is $1,229/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087201001?

1.7% of residents in tract 51087201001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,587.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087201001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 60th, minority 90th, housing 49th.

Is tract 51087201001 considered part of Mayfair Place?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087201001 fall within Mayfair Place (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087201001?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 663 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087201001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 45.56% of renter households, peaking at 43.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51087201001 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087201001 compare to East Highland Park overall?

Tract 51087201001 scores 5/10, lower than the parent city of East Highland Park at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from East Highland Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51087201001 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in East Highland Park

Top eight tracts in East Highland Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.