Neighborhood · Ranked #42,790 of 84,120 nationally

Westham Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tuckahoe

Tract 51087200202 · Henrico County, VA · pop 4,046 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51087200202 (the Westham neighborhood of Tuckahoe, Virginia) comes in at 6.3/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 82nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

39% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,257 a month while the average household earns $159,810 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 5% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.6

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 3% Owners 95%

Tract context

Occupied units1,527

Renter share4.6%

SVI overall0.07

Poverty rate0.5%

Median income$159,810

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tuckahoe and the region

Centroid at 37.5864, -77.5439 · click any tract to drill in

Why Westham scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Tuckahoe

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

0.5% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,257 rent vs county FMR

8.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Tuckahoe

6.4

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Tuckahoe

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Tuckahoe

5.4

How Westham compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 7

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

7%Socioeconomic
63%Household composition
8%Racial/ethnic minority
4%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
2%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

6Total filings over 2 yrs
3.43%Avg annual filing rate
2.4%Peak (2015)
3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

4.6%Housing insecurity
3.1%Utility-shutoff threat
4.3%Food insecurity
3.0%SNAP enrollment
3.3%Transit barriers
3.8%No health insurance
12.7%Frequent mental distress
22.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Westham

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 8.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 6 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 3.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 2.4% of renter households in 2015.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200202?

Census tract 51087200202 in the Westham neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200202?

Median gross rent is $2,257/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200202?

0.5% of residents in tract 51087200202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,046.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 63th, minority 8th, housing 4th.

Is tract 51087200202 considered part of Westham?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200202 fall within Westham (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.43% of renter households, peaking at 2.4% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51087200202 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200202 compare to Tuckahoe overall?

Tract 51087200202 scores 4.6/10, lower than the parent city of Tuckahoe at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51087200202 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tuckahoe

Top eight tracts in Tuckahoe ranked by composite eviction-risk score.