Neighborhood · Ranked #23,426 of 84,120 nationally

Grayson Hill Eviction Risk: Elevated , Tuckahoe

Tract 51087200134 · Henrico County, VA · pop 5,013 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

The Grayson Hill neighborhood of Tuckahoe is where census tract 51087200134 sits, home to 5,013 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 6.7/10. It lands near the 90th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

60% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 35% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,482 monthly, set against $122,091 in average yearly household income, roughly 15% of income at the averages. About 17% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

6.1

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 7% Owners 83%

Tract context

Occupied units1,897

Renter share17.3%

SVI overall0.27

Poverty rate12.9%

Median income$122,091

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tuckahoe and the region

Centroid at 37.5873, -77.5882 · click any tract to drill in

Why Grayson Hill scores 6.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Tuckahoe

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

12.9% poverty · this tract

3.2

Supply constraint

$1,482 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Tuckahoe

6.4

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Tuckahoe

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Tuckahoe

5.4

How Grayson Hill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 27

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

31%Socioeconomic
67%Household composition
25%Racial/ethnic minority
15%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Grayson Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.8%Housing insecurity
4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
7.3%Food insecurity
5.8%SNAP enrollment
4.8%Transit barriers
5.3%No health insurance
13.5%Frequent mental distress
28.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Grayson Hill

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 27th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200134

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200134?

Census tract 51087200134 in the Grayson Hill neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200134?

Median gross rent is $1,482/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200134?

12.9% of residents in tract 51087200134 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,013.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200134?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 27th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 31th, household 67th, minority 25th, housing 15th.

Is tract 51087200134 considered part of Grayson Hill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200134 fall within Grayson Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51087200134 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200134 compare to Tuckahoe overall?

Tract 51087200134 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Tuckahoe at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tuckahoe

Top eight tracts in Tuckahoe ranked by composite eviction-risk score.