Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally
Gray Falcon Station Eviction Risk: Lower , Brambleton
Tract 51107611027 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 2,523 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
For landlords sizing up the Gray Falcon Station neighborhood of Brambleton, census tract 51107611027 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.3/10. It lands near the 48th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 36% of renter households, a high level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,282 monthly, set against $145,972 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 49% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units1,022
Renter share48.8%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$145,972
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
9
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brambleton and the region
Centroid at 38.9980, -77.5341 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gray Falcon Station scores 1.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brambleton
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,282 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brambleton
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brambleton
4.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brambleton
4.7
How Gray Falcon Station compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 17%Socioeconomic
- 46%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.4%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.7%No health insurance
- 14.5%Frequent mental distress
- 20.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gray Falcon Station
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Brambleton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 38th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611027
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611027?
Census tract 51107611027 in the Gray Falcon Station neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611027?
Median gross rent is $2,282/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611027?
4.3% of residents in tract 51107611027 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,523.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611027?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 46th, minority 68th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611027 considered part of Gray Falcon Station?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611027 fall within Gray Falcon Station (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611027 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611027 compare to Brambleton overall?
Tract 51107611027 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Brambleton at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brambleton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Brambleton
Top eight tracts in Brambleton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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