Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Goose Creek Bend Eviction Risk: Lower , Goose Creek Village
Tract 51107611028 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,078 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Tract 51107611028 sits in the Goose Creek Bend area of Goose Creek Village, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.8/10. It is home to 6,078 residents. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,733
Renter share7.5%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate1.7%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
32
th percentile
Low
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Goose Creek Village and the region
Centroid at 39.0203, -77.5540 · click any tract to drill in
Why Goose Creek Bend scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,873 rent vs county FMR
7.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
2.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
1.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goose Creek Village
2.3
How Goose Creek Bend compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.6%Housing insecurity
- 3.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.0%Food insecurity
- 3.3%SNAP enrollment
- 3.8%Transit barriers
- 4.3%No health insurance
- 11.5%Frequent mental distress
- 16.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Goose Creek Bend
Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.8/10. The voucher gap is 24.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. SNAP participation runs 3.3% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 6.0% against 17.8% nationally. On the softer side, housing-court posture reads 2.3/10. On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.3/10.
Against average income of $250,001, annual rent is just 14%. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Loudoun County average of 4.1 closely.
Average gross rent is $2,873, close to the Goose Creek Village average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611028
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611028?
Census tract 51107611028 in the Goose Creek Bend neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611028?
Median gross rent is $2,873/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611028?
1.7% of residents in tract 51107611028 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,078.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611028?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 21th, minority 70th, housing 7th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611028 considered part of Goose Creek Bend?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611028 fall within Goose Creek Bend (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611028 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611028 compare to Goose Creek Village overall?
Tract 51107611028 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Goose Creek Village at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goose Creek Village; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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