Neighborhood · Ranked #25,671 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Town Center Eviction Risk: Moderate , Leesylvania

Tract 51153900502 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,112 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi

Tract 51153900502, home to 5,112 residents in the Potomac Town Center neighborhood of Leesylvania, scores 5.7/10 for landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 63rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

42% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 9% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,345 a month against an average household income of $127,708 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. About 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 30% Owners 48%

Tract context

Occupied units2,012

Renter share51.7%

SVI overall0.42

Poverty rate3.5%

Median income$127,708

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Leesylvania and the region

Centroid at 38.6271, -77.2843 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Town Center scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Leesylvania

6.7

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

3.5% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,345 rent vs county FMR

5.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Leesylvania

4.4

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.8

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Leesylvania

7.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Leesylvania

3.6

How Potomac Town Center compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 42

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

33%Socioeconomic
10%Household composition
79%Racial/ethnic minority
71%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

97Total filings over 1 yrs
12.61%Avg annual filing rate
12.6%Peak (2016)
97Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Town Center. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.2%Housing insecurity
7.2%Utility-shutoff threat
10.5%Food insecurity
7.6%SNAP enrollment
6.5%Transit barriers
6.5%No health insurance
15.1%Frequent mental distress
22.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Town Center

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Leesylvania eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900502

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900502?

Census tract 51153900502 in the Potomac Town Center neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900502?

Median gross rent is $2,345/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900502?

3.5% of residents in tract 51153900502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,112.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 10th, minority 79th, housing 71th.

Is tract 51153900502 considered part of Potomac Town Center?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900502 fall within Potomac Town Center (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900502?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 97 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.61% of renter households, peaking at 12.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153900502 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900502 compare to Leesylvania overall?

Tract 51153900502 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Leesylvania at 5.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Leesylvania eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Leesylvania

Top eight tracts in Leesylvania ranked by composite eviction-risk score.