Japantown Eviction Risk: High

92% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The strongest single driver of the headline number is rent-regulation exposure at 9/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 9/10. The poverty rate is 33%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Set annual rent against average household income of $56,521 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.3/10. The severe-burden share is 18%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

At $1,543 a month, rents sit 24% under what the rest of Seattle commands. Court records carry 525 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.

The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 3.0% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 1.1% in 2013, is well off that peak. Among the 65 mapped neighborhoods of Seattle, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Chinatown and NewHolly. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0 points apart at the extremes.

With little internal variation, 9.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.