Water Avenue Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated

Against a Selma baseline of 39.7%, 53% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. Severe burden reaches 32%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 31.8% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Set annual rent against average household income of $23,237 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The poverty rate is 35%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

Sitting well above the midpoint is housing-court posture at 8.8/10. On the high side is rent-regulation exposure at 8.7/10. Court records carry 554 eviction filings across its 3 observed tracts.

The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 5.5% of renter households. Judgments average 1.1% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.