Hobson Eviction Risk: Moderate , Birmingham

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. 24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.8/10.

Disability prevalence runs 46.4% against 31.5% nationally. The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Jefferson County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 217 evictions over 11 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2006, when 4.4% of renter households were served.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Birmingham. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. At $1,018 a month, rents run 8% under what the rest of Birmingham commands. In a typical year about 3.9% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.