Montgomery Eviction Risk: Moderate

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The poverty rate is 35%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 8.7/10. Food insecurity runs 33.5% against 17.8% nationally.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.6/10. SNAP participation runs 29.6% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Montgomery County average of 4.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.

The filing record is not thin: 685 evictions over 9 years of observation. The voucher gap is 14.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $1,211, 11% above the Montgomery average.

Filings peaked in 2014 at 10.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 7.8% of renter households face a filing.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.